While I don’t have intimate knowledge of either company’s inner workings, I got to thinking about this move – its both smart and confusing:

Smart because:

• Glam knows that it is a buyer’s market right now, and they can take advantage of that fact while the economy is wobbly.
• AdaptiveAds has some useful ad-serving technology that comes with the transaction, including a self-serve purchase system for ad agencies (which media buyers love).
• It is likely that AdaptiveAds has penetration in different markets overseas that Glam wants to penetrate. A very smart move to diversify their revenue base.

But even though I predicted this would start happening, I’m surprised that it’s Glam, and I’m surprised that it’s now:

• This is the worst time of year for online media, and the rest of 2009 is a complete crap shoot at this point.
• Glam already has inventory issues – adding more publishers to their roster may compound the problem even more.
• Glam already has stability issues. In the last 3 months they slowed down publisher payments from 90 to 120 days, and slashed exec compensation by 60%.

So What Does All of This Have to do With Mommy Bloggers?

Right now, the online ad industry has a ratio problem – not enough ad inventory vs. too much publisher inventory. Glam, being one of the leaders in the women’s ad space, is doing everything they can to compensate for the fact that they don’t have enough ad inventory. They’ve cut costs in their operations, and are taking longer to pay their accounts payables.

But only thing they can do to compensate on the publisher inventory side of things is cut under-performing publishers from their programs. It’s much easier and cost effective to cut hundreds of mommy blogs from the network than it is to cut one high-performing site. Escalate Media’s DiaperSwappers mom community can deliver the same amount of impressions as 336 mom blogs, and that’s if they have a generously estimated 25K page views a month. Most mom blogs have far less than that.

Glam isn’t the only network working with mom bloggers. I suspect this fear is a non-issue with the BlogHerAds network, as mom blogs are their bread and butter. But BlogHer also has some pretty strict content restrictions that are getting harder for publishers to accept as brands start reaching out to bloggers directly. And who knows what’s going on elsewhere in the already-too-saturated mom’s ad network space.

I truly believe that the online advertising market, while seeing a slump right now, will be the first to recover from the economic mess we are in. And I also believe that ads targeting moms is a realtively-speaking strong market that is here to stay. More advertising budgets are moving online every day, and outdoor, newspaper and TV are getting hit hard.

But it’s anyone’s guess as to when a true advertising recovery is going to happen, and I worry about what the casualties will be in the mom blogging community until then.

2008 has given us all a shakeup. We have a fragile economy unlike anything we have seen in 80 years. And the online advertising and technology industry is in for a rough ride in 2009. But 2008 was also the Year of the Woman online. Over the last 18 months, the number of ad networks targeted towards moms and women exploded. Some high-profile players entered the space, notable examples include iVillage’s partial buy-in of BlogHer, and Circle of Moms growth to 850K registered Facebook application users in less than 2 months.

2009 is a make-it-or-break-it year for nearly every business in existence today. And as for women’s websites and communities, we at Escalate Media think this industry is also in for a bit of a shakeup:

1 – Women’s Ad Networks

We think that if any of the advertising industries are well positioned to weather the economic storm, it is the online ad industry. Newspapers and outdoor media will continue to suffer, but online media has the track record to convince advertisers to move more dollars online. Yet since advertisers will have less dollars to begin with, we’ll see only moderate growth in the online ad space.

I personally think there are too many ad networks targeted towards women and moms right now. All of them have inventory problems and some are only taking in new publishers under more restrictive terms, if at all. I think bigger players are going to take advantage of the fact that they can buy more with less and we will see some consolidation of the women’s ad networks in ‘09.

2 – Women’s Social Networks

If there are too many women’s ad networks, then we have an epidemic of social networks for women, especially moms. With tighter VC funding, we’ll see less startups in this space (thank god). And only the strongest of the existing destinations will be able to weather the storm. Yet, those that serve a tight niche, that have great content, or are tied to recession-proof markets will do particularly well. Women love connecting with other women, and will do it even more in ‘09.

In fact, the top three activities women engage in online are shopping, reading the news, and socializing via social networks and online communities. This is great news for women’s social sites.

3 – Number of Women Online

History predicts that this number can only go up as computers and internet access become more widely available. Add to that an economy that forces us to keep our entertainment budgets to a minimum, and I predict 2009 sees a bigger jump in women online than predicted.

4 – Social Media Marketing

Since social communities are here to stay, and women are extremely active in these communities, companies and brands are getting to the point where they can’t ignore social media marketing any more. In 2009, we are going to hit the crossover point in which those who are still afraid of social media marketing are going to be left behind if they don’t jump in now.

Nowhere is this more evident than it is on Twitter, where the election forced mainstream news agencies to embrace the medium. Brands who were early adopters such as Dell, Zappos, and Comcast are now the subject of numerous case studies with data to back up their efforts. Quite frankly, I find it astonishing that Walmart, Kmart and Sears beat Target to the punch and have all had a presence on Twitter whereas Target is nowhere to be found. They need to move beyond the walls of their controlled “Momversation” if they are going to keep their market edge.

5 – Beyond Advertising

Even if online ad spending doesn’t take a big hit in 2009, it doesn’t mean that online companies aren’t going to prepare themselves for the worst. Only strong business models can survive an economic storm like the one we are in. So we bet that you will start seeing more products, services and incentives from sites that were 100% advertising based in the past.

Enter the era of the social shopping network. Companies are taking clues from successful product blogs (like Engadget), social networks (Facebook), and shopping comparison sites (Shopping.com) & mixing it up to find new ways to generate revenue off of site visitors.

6 – Companies will Lean on Recession-Proof Industries

There were a few bright spots in this incredibly dismal holiday shopping season. While nearly all retailers tumbled, WalMart & Amazon rocked. Macy’s can’t get rid of merchandise at 60% off, but craft retailers like Jo-Ann and Michael’s were a surprise hit as shoppers decided to make more presents this year instead of buying them.

Health & skin care, groceries & cooking, children’s clothing and educational products are all relatively safe places to be in 2009. We’ll be seeing a lot more online engagement from these companies than we will from companies like GM or WaMu.

7 – Women Love a Deal

Coupon and discount sites may seem very 1999, but we’re betting on the fact that *every* woman loves a sale. In 2009 women, and especially moms, will *need* a sale. As more women move online, we’ve seen bargain hunters increase activity across our network of sites, even in this economy. The lowest prices will win, and any site that serves up savings is going to do well this year.

8 – Local Family Recreation & Travel

The camping trend that emerged in 2008 thanks to high gas prices is going to extend into 2009 thanks to falling incomes. Families unable to take big vacations will do more locally at parks, attractions, and local tourist destinations. And moms seeking cost-effective activities for their kids will be turning to the internet to find more things to do close to home.

9 – Think Green

With our new president comes a new focus on going green. While consumers have purchased green products for decades, we think that a paradigm shift is finally on it’s way so that green will become mainstream in 2009. Not only will women be doing more research about living more eco-friendly, they will be hunting down more products that won’t harm the environment.